WW1's inevitibility

Was WW1 inevitable

The origin and outbreak of the first world wide mass war was a source of debate for a long time. The great war that brought destruction and death to so many still has its origin clouded. Sometimes, historians raise the question of whether WW1 was inevitable. In my opinion, World War 1 was structurally unavoidable. The question is when not will. The complex alliance system, rise of Germany and industrialization of Russia, chaos in the Balkans, as well as the collapse of the carefully crafted diplomatic system of Bismarck created a massive powder keg waiting to explode. This power keg is linked to colonial and geopolitical quests across the world. Under this environment, any local conflict erupting in troublesome areas will draw the great powers into a massive war while the rise of nationalism encourages governments to escalate the tension, eventually resulting in an destructive all out war. However, the real point of no return happened when William II promised the infamous blank cheque.

Europe in the late 19th century and early 20th century was a complex continent with great colonial empires making and breaking alliances based on their rapidly changing situation and their domestic political dynamics. The rise of Germany dramatically changed the geopolitical landscape of the world, the Germans under Willian II pushed an expansionist agenda which threatened the interest of old colonial empires such as the UK, France, and Russia. This can be seen in the German push for the Baghdad railway, A railway that links Germany with Bagdad extends the German military and colonial power all the way to the Middle East, causing alarm for the Russians and the British. Russia and Britain were historically massive colonial empires locked in a competition along the Persia-Central Asia-Afghanistan line in their “great game”. However, the approach of German power raised alarm for both of them which pushed Russia and Britain into the Anglo Russian convention, resolving their longstanding dispute along the core of Eurasia. The rise of the German navy also caused great concern among the British as they historically viewed the Ocean as their domain. The British navy had historically been the strongest in the world and the rise of the German navy is greatly threatening to the British colonial domain. Under the dramatically changing situation Germany, a country with a strong military tradition and ambitious plan, the international situation inevitably changed for the worse. These tensions across the continent were further exasperated by the imperialist quest of the German empire under Kaiser William II. The young and ambitious emperor, wanting to give Germany “a place in the sun”, committed to a policy of aggressive geopolitical strategy, launching Germany into an all out political alliance making process. The German commitment into the Dual alliance and later the Triple alliance were all representations of such a trend.

The Russian Empire, although bearing the “sign” of an outdated empire still practicing serfdom, actually had a period of high economic growth, strengthening political position, and growing domestic and international prestige. This was the period after the failed revolution of 1905 that saw successful reform initiated by brilliant statesman Sergei Witte and Peter Stolypin. The Russian legal system went through sweeping reforms with a ban on arbitrary arrest, introduced progressive taxation, and extended insurance to state workers. Agrarian reform freed millions of Russian peasants from onligarion to landowners while mass rural influx into the cities created a large labor force for industrialization. State capitalism was blooming with railways linking the vast country exporting Siberian timber and natural resources to the West. Russia’s economic potential was vast as the massive country processes one of the richest natural resource hubs in the world. By the 1910s, Russia’s economy was growing with close to 10% growth rate. Yet, the economic miracle depended on external peace. Germany was not ready to give Russia the peace it wanted. Germany, fearing the rise of a superpower on its eastern border, wanted to forcibly stop the rise of Russia through warfare that was going to destroy Russia’s momentum. Germany, itself being a rising industrial and military power, was keen not to be sandwiched by a vast rising superpower in its east and two traditional colonial empires in its west. Thus, the alarm Russia’s rise triggered in Germany pushed the Germans to distance themselves from Russia.

Under the complicated geopolitical environment, the old “make and break” practice with alliance systems was replaced with two military and political systems locked in a standoff. The cause of the formation of the triple alliance and the triple entente is complex, but one of the core reasons can be concluded as: Russo Austrian conflict in the balkans. Following the collapse of Ottoman power in Europe in the Italo Ottoman war and the first Balkan War, opportunities were quickly seized by the Austro Hungarian Empire and the Russian Empire. The Austro Hungarians, faced with a growing challenge from the rise of Pan Slavism pushed by Russia in its imperial domain, wanted an opportunity to deter it from growing through a decisive military operation that is able to root out a main source of Pan Slavist and nationalist ideology, Serbia. Russia, on the other hand, was keen on becoming the “big brother” of the slavic people across Europe and thus pushed for Pan Slavism in the balkans as a way to gain strategically important hub to the Adriatic sea and potentially gaining a warm water port that is able to expand Russian naval power into the Mediterranean. Russia and the Austrians also wanted to seize the strategically important Balkans as a trading hub that communicates Europe and Asia. Russia even genuinely believed that their actions were for the interest of their fellow Balkan Slavic peoples against Austrian and Turkish aggression.

The deterioration of relations between Germany and Russia under the influence of the Austrians were also a chief reason for the formation of the Franco Russian alliance in which the French and the Russians each committed to joint defense against the triple allies. The Franco Russian alliance was the main event Bismarck tried to avoid since a revanchilist France hungry for vengeance and an ambitious Russia hungry for French loans for their industrialization and infrastructure construction while ignored by the Germans threatened Germany with a two front war. Bismarck’s political design of isolating France completely collapsed following the formation of the Franco Russian alliance that saw the French and the Russians committing to a joint military alliance. The fall of the carefully crafted alliance pushed the world further into war with the French emboldened by their new strong ally. Following the Anglo German naval competition, Anglo French cooperation on various African colonial disputes, and the resolution of the great game with Russia, UK was well on its way to join the Franco Russian alliance into a new “triple entente”. Therefore, by the end of 1907, the world was already locked in a standoff between the triple alliance led by Germany and the Triple Entente between the UK, France, and Russia. Since the powder keg was already set, will the fire be far?

There had been various geopolitical tensions brewing around the world that involved the Triple Entente and the Triple alliance. The Second Moroccan crisis was a notable example in which the Germans, unwilling to back down again after the first Moroccan Crisis, was itself locked in a dangerous standoff against the combined force of Britain and France. The entente cordiale was confirmed through the crisis as Anglo-German relationship worsened. The final territorial resolution saw Germany give in on French demand due to its relative weakness when facing a combined force of the entente cordiale. The end of the two balkan wars are another example of the heightened tension between the Entente and the triple alliance. The strengthening of Serbian power following it’s two consecutive military victory greatly emboldened the Serbs and the Russians who jointly pushed for pan slavic nationalism, threatening the Austro Hungarian empire with an internal slavic revolt which was exactly why the Austrians were so eager on an opportunity to strike hard at the Serbians. These are all local geopolitical tensions that involved members of both alliances and they are all possible fires that could lit the powder keg. These crises all show how weak the international “peace” was between them as any misunderstanding would result in an all out war between the two powers. The Second Moroccan crisis, although ending with German concession, was a symptom of how sick the international environment became by the early 1910s. Thus, by the formation of these alliances, any strategic miscalculation will trigger the weak system and result in a total war.

Nationalism also played an important part in triggering world war 1. The rise of nationalist sentiment gave the rulers of the countries involved a chance to gather support among the populace. It is to the favor of the rulers that by promising their people a short and winnable war, they are able to gather fervent nationalist sentiment and thus increase their support, strengthening their domestic stance. The monarchies were able to graner up popularity and thus had enough popular support to enter the war. The governments of European countries believed that the war was an opportunity for them to regain waning internal popularity and stabilize the country as well as placate the young population. It was Serbian nationalism that killed Archduke Ferdinand, meaning that at least initially, a considerable proportion of the population of various combatants were supportive of their country entering the war.

Yet, the real point of no return for a massive world war to erupt in July 1914 is the blank cheque offered by Kaiser Wilhelm II. Wilhelm, in pledging support for the Austrians in case of a war with Russia, activated the chain of alliances that eventually resulted in world war 1. Wilhelm’s move pushed the world into massive war as the entrance of Germany changed the nature of the conflict from a localized war between Serbia and Austro Hungary into a war of global scale. Countries like the UK, France, Russia, etc. upon seeing Germany entering the war to aid their Austrian ally, realized the seriousness of the situation and entered the war. Therefore, without the blank cheque, the great war would still erupt, but not in the summer of 1914. Instead, the crisis in the Balkans would rather be seen as another leadup to the world war that is going to come eventually.