Myanmar: Consequences after the military coup

In February 1 2021, Myanmar's legitimate government led by Aung San Suu Kyi was being overthrown by the military and arrested alongside many politicians who supported her. She was elected in last year's election, but the military and the military supported political party claim that the election was rigged.

Myanmar was ruled by the military since a coup in 1962. The military have been controlling every aspect of the country ever since. There were several attempts by the people to try to overthrow the military but almost all of them failed. However, in 2011, the military can't hold on to the country as there are massive demonstrations by almost everyone in the society while international criticism mount with sanctions hurting the generals corruption and Myanmar's economy. They gave up power in 2011 and allowed democratic elections to take place. In 2016, Suu Kyi's party won by a landslide and have since became the country's "leader" However, she still have little to no control over the country.

In 2008, the military already know that their time is up. They drafted a constitution in 2008 that made them the actual de facto ruler of the country even if they are not the country's ceremonial ruler. If the constitution need to be changed, it would need 3/4 percent of parliament to agree. However, the military have a reserved 1/4 of seats in the parliament plus a puppet party that is supported by the military which made it almost impossible to change the military's monopoly. The military also created an "national defence and security committee" that have the power to take over the government and dissolve the parliament. The commander in chief of the military is not the president, it is senior general Ming Aung Hliang. The committee also have the power to declare a state of emergency. The minister of national defence, internal affairs, and border control are all military personnel. The military can skip the parliament and approve the nomination of military chief directly and purpose an amnesty. The military also have the direct control of regional government. The foreign inspector can only have access to border areas when the military agrees. 13-14% of the national budget goes to the military while the military controls almost every aspect of the economy from mining to oil to finance... There are two big cooperations in Myanmar that is supported by the military. In exchange, these too cooperations will transport a large amount of interest to the military. The military can also skip the central government and have diplomatic visit to foreign countries. Thus, the military have control of executive branch, violent force, and money which made Myanmar a de facto military ruled country.

If Myanmar's military have a great system, why do they have a coup to overthrow the government even if they benefit in the background? In my opinion, the military is getting anxious at the popularity that Suu Kyi is getting. She has won every free and fair election with a landslide. The percentage of parliament that is controlled by her parliament is getting bigger and bigger. With that popularity, she could use the little democratic power to step by step strip off the military's power over the country. The military over their decades of rule has gained their fair amount of disapproval. The generals are deeply unpopular among the majority of the people of Myanmar. With the popularity of Suu Kyi and the support of the people, even the strongest military in the world can't resist to the pressure of the majority of the people. Although she have limited actual power, she is at least the ceremonial leader of the country and she is able to execute some influence to the country. She can use her continuous election victory to expand her power and eventually gain control of the country. Thus, before she gets another four years of potentially threatening ceremonial power and her overwhelming popularity, the military would choose to get rid of her completely.

The Myanmar's military coup is an event that almost all powers does not want to see. For America, it is a slap in the face for their new cabinet that claims to promote democracy. If Joe Biden doesn't respond harshly to the military of Myanmar, then his "America is back" diplomacy would fail to have a big echo among other nations. For China, the military coup puts China in a very vulnerable position where the Chinese have already been building a good relationship with Myanmar under Aung San Suu Kyi. The military coup brings a big abbreviation to the Chinese. The Myanmar military is also very alarming on china's economic and political influence since the generals are almost all nationalists and is against almost all foreign economic and political influence. However, the Chinese would need a government that is able to protect Chinese interest in Myanmar. Suu Kyi and her government is a government that is backed by the west in her effort to overthrow the military. If the western pressure got her back on leadership, then H would need to get closer to the west while keeping a distance to China which puts China in a position where the military of Myanmar would be cautious when contacting China, the population would be hostile to China, China's contact and relations with Suu Kyi would collapse, and Suu Kyi who may need the west to get restored would distance herself from China.

Now, wave after wave of sanctions arrived in Myanmar as internal and external pressure mounts on the military. However, the profit of Myanmar's economy and the corruption money is able to sustain the military for a few years. However, the international community is stating to encircle and surround Myanmar's military while the isolated country cannot sustain pressure from the most powerful country in human history for long. Thus, I think that the military is able to sustain their power for a few years. But without foreign help, it is really difficult for them to survive for long.