How would a post COVID Canadian election look like?

Recently, election speculations have been running hot as a minority federal government generally would not last for over two years. However, given the COVID-19 situation, it is really unrealistic to have an election taking place during the pandemic with a low vaccination rate. However, what if there is an election taking place after the pandemic? What would be the cause? and what will be the outcome.

The current situation is a great time for elections. There are several controversies plaguing this already hanging minority government that have won less vote compared to the conservatives in the 2019 election wile all other parties are preparing for an election with more and more promises and talks. The Liberals are enjoying a slightly higher polls than the conservatives now and the conservatives would really struggle if there is an election since the party have just gone through a wave of uncertainty after the resignation of Andrew Scheer while Erin O'Toole haven't experienced a bump in the pools unlike other conservative leaders. There are also a lot of confidence votes taking place in the parliament and each of them could trigger a snap election.

One of the most potential cause of a snap election in 2021 would be the spring budget. The budget in the spring would be a confidence vote that is able to bring down the government and trigger an election. However, that is maybe what the Liberals want if there is no vaccination program going on. The conservatives have made no gains in the polls after Andrew Scheer resigns. The conservatives are even losing ground after O'Toole took office which can be reflected in the retreat of conservatives in Atlantic Canada, Western Canada, and British Columbia. The only place where the conservatives made little gain in Quebec where they got a 1.3% increase in the pools which is possibly the effect of O'Toole's fluent French rather than his policy. However, when we compare that with the Liberals, we can clearly see that due to the COVID-19 pandemic, their poll numbers have increased in a pretty big margin. If an election was to be held today, they would have a good chance of winning a majority government. They are leading the conservatives by five percent which can matter a lot in actual elections. the Liberals won 2019 election in a circumstance where they are behind the conservatives by a small margin. The conservative party is in a state of internal struggle and Erin O'Toole have little control. The conservatives voted against a climate change bill proposed by the liberals even if O'Toole urged them to approve which shows that there is internal discontent about his leadership. However, these would all be impossible given that Canada is at the crucial phase of vaccination effort and needs stability to get through this moment.

However, our hypothesis is that our election would take place after the pandemic. The post covid politics is not going well for the Liberals. The Liberal party haven't had any remarkable achievements with the economy having very limited growth while several controversies have severely damaged the popularity of the Liberals in the long term. The WE controversy, the SNC Lavalin, etc are all haunting the government's public image in the long term. The current jump in the popularity is mostly caused by the pandemic. during troubled time such as war, pandemic, natural disasters, the public generally gathers around the government since the government is the only organization they can trust to get through the trouble. similar pattern can be traced in the UK where the popularity of Winston Churchill jumped high during World War 2. However, after the war, he was defected by the labour party in a wide margin due to the impression of Churchill being an "war time prime minister" and he campaigned on his achievement in the war while the labour party campaigned on a strategy of rebuilding the country after the war which made the labours look like the party of reconstruction. Similar fate could happen to the liberals and things could get worse. The liberals does not have remarkable achievement in normal years, their handling of covid haven't been remarkable, and the only thing that may make the Liberals happy after the pandemic would be that the conservatives is possibly in a worse position.

There may be two different alternative outcome of the post covid Canadian election. The first outcome would be that the liberals held an election right after the pandemic where their pandemic popularity still remains and their campaign is very good. If that is the case, then the Liberals would win a majority government and sit in office for another four years. However, if the liberals are slow to call an election and the liberals campaign didn't go that well, then it would likely be a conservative minority of liberal minority.